Global Growth May Slump to 2009 Levels As Ukraine War Drags on: IIF

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  • Global growth could slow to just 1.2% in 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance.
  • Growth was last that weak in 2009 as the financial crisis ravaged the global economy.
  • The “forever war” between Russia and Ukraine could hammer growth until 2024, the IIF said.

Global growth could plunge to 2009 levels next year when adjusted for base effects as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to weigh on the world economy, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Economists including Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun said on Thursday that growth was likely to fall to just 1.2% in 2023 as what they called the “forever war” drags on, Bloomberg first reported.

Brooks and Fortun see the ongoing conflict, which has injected volatility into stock markets and triggered price surges for commodities from crude oil to wheat, to suppress economic growth for all of next year.

“The severity of the coming hit to global GDP depends principally on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine,” they wrote in a research note. “Our base case is that fighting drags on into 2024, given that the conflict is ‘existential’ for Putin.”

The eurozone economy is likely to contract by 2% as business confidence falls due to Europe’s proximity to Russia and Ukraine, according to the IIF.

Meanwhile, Latin America is likely to prove a “positive standout” – and the continent’s economy could expand by 1.2% next year, the trade body said.

Read more: There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession – which signals a severe downturn and more downside risk for stocks, research group says



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