Economy
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Are Professional Forecasters Overconfident? – Liberty Street Economics
Marco Del Negro The post-COVID years have not been kind to professional forecasters, whether from the private sector or policy…
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Can Professional Forecasters Predict Uncertain Times?
Marco Del Negro Economic surveys are very popular these days and for a good reason. They tell us how the…
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AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?
Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, and Benjamin Hyman The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential…
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An Update on the Reservation Wages in the SCE Labor Market Survey
Gizem Kosar, Davide Melcangi, and Sasha Thomas The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey…
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The Disparate Outcomes of Bank- and Nonbank-Financed Private Credit Expansions
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias Long-run trends in increased access to credit are thought to improve real activity. However, “rapid”…
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A New Set of Indicators of Reserve Ampleness
Gara Afonso, Kevin Clark, Brian Gowen, Gabriele La Spada, JC Martinez, Jason Miu, and Will Riordan The Federal Reserve (Fed)…
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The Anatomy of Labor Demand Pre- and Post-COVID
Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, Giorgio Topa, and Roshie Xing Has labor demand changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? In this post,…
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The Mysterious Slowdown in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity
Danial Lashkari and Jeremy Pearce Throughout the twentieth century, steady technological and organizational innovations, along with the accumulation of productive…
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What Was Up with Grocery Prices?
Thomas Klitgaard The consumer price index for groceries has risen more than the overall price index since the start of…
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Wage Insurance: A Potential Policy for Displaced Workers
Ben Hyman, Brian Kovak, and Adam Leive Despite the existing safety net, worker displacement continues to have severe consequences that…
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